Regular gasoline prices in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are projected to increase by 6 cents per litre on October 3, 2026, reaching 191.9 cents per litre. This forecasted rise is attributed to several factors:
– **Crude Oil Prices**: Global oil prices have been on an upward trend, with August 2026 averaging $91 per barrel, a $7 increase from July. This rise is linked to declining global oil inventories, which have decreased by 400 million barrels so far this year. ([eia.gov](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/?utm_source=openai)) (EIA)
– **Seasonal Fuel Blends**: The transition from summer to winter gasoline blends typically leads to higher production costs. This annual switch often results in increased gasoline prices during the fall months. ([toronto.citynews.ca](https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/09/10/toronto-gta-gas-prices-drop-september-fuel/?utm_source=openai)) (Toronto)
– **Refinery Output and Supply Constraints**: Fluctuations in refinery operations and potential supply constraints can impact gasoline prices. For instance, in September 2026, refinery output and global crude fluctuations were cited as contributing factors to price increases. ([toronto.citynews.ca](https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/09/16/toronto-gta-gas-prices-increase-thursday-september/?utm_source=openai)) (Toronto)
While these factors provide insight into the anticipated price increase, no single verified cause was identified for the specific 6-cent rise forecasted for October 3, 2026.